Determinants of Inclusive Agricultural Value Chain and Their Impact on Livelihoods among Contracted Farmers in The Seed Maize Multiplication Programme in Baringo South Sub-County, Baringo County, Kenya

Abstract

Integrating smallholder farmers into partnership with agribusiness firms empowers farmers through access to markets and opportunities to increase their income. Maize is a priority food crop for many households in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, the need for quality seed maize offers a great economic prospect for farmers to boost their livelihoods. Despite the economic opportunities that seed maize multiplication programme presents to farmers in Baringo South Sub-County, the poverty index in the sub-county is still high at 52.2% while some farmers have begun exiting the programme. Empirical studies that explore the factors influencing farmer continued participation in the programme are limited. This study examined the determinants of inclusive agricultural value chains and their impact on household livelihoods among smallholder farmers in the seed maize multiplication programme in Baringo South Sub-County, Kenya. The study aimed to assess how production and processing logistics and farmer group dynamics influence farmers’ continued participation, and how participation affects their capacity to sustainably meet family needs. The study adopted a cross-sectional survey design targeting all contracted seed maize farmers in the Sub-County. A multistage sampling technique incorporating proportionate, purposive and simple random sampling was used to select a sample of 366 farmers, out of which 348 participated (95.08% response rate). Data were collected using structured questionnaires and analysed using descriptive statistics, binary and multinomial logistic regression, and Spearman rank correlation. Findings indicated that production and processing logistics specifically, limited irrigation capacity (Odds Ratio [OR] = 0.178, p < 0.000), inadequate post-harvest equipment (OR = 0.523, p = 0.050), and poor seed quality (OR = 0.161, p = 0.004) significantly reduced the odds of continued participation. While good road network increased odds of continued participation by 1.829 (p=0.001). However, farmer knowledge of credit terms (p = 0.141) and access to extension services (p = 0.192) were not statistically significant predictors. In terms of farmer group dynamics, un-transparent leadership (OR = 0.081, p < 0.000) and limited knowledge of contractual arrangements (OR = 0.739, p = 0.049) were associated with reduced participation. Regarding livelihoods, crop losses significantly increased the odds of a farmer being unable to meet basic household needs (OR = 0.485, p = 0.016), while sustainable savings significantly reduced those odds (OR = 1.767, p < 0.000). There was a strong negative correlation between non-transparent leadership and continued participation (r = -0.473, p<0.01), also significant negative correlations between group leadership and post-harvest efficiency (r = -0.124, p<0.05) and credit repayment ability (r = -0.113, p<0.05). A positive correlation was observed between post-harvest processes and farmer payment timeliness (r = 0.136, p<0.05). This study concludes that, while the seed maize multiplication programme offers significant livelihood opportunities, systemic challenges such as unreliable irrigation, post-harvest inadequacies, leadership gaps, limited contractual awareness, delayed payments and production risks undermine sustained farmer engagement and household welfare. This implies that, both institutional (farmer group dynamics) and structural (production and processing logistics) factors interact to shape farmer participation in the seed maize multiplication programme and their livelihood outcomes. Addressing inefficiencies in these broad areas through targeted interventions is critical for enhancing the inclusivity and sustainable impact of the seed maize multiplication programme in Baringo South Sub-County. The study recommends investment in irrigation and rural infrastructure, post-harvest technologies and farmer group leadership capacity building to enhance programme inclusivity and impact.